Five
Popular Betting Systems That Eventually Fail
There are dozens of ?foolproof? betting systems for roulette.
They are available, at a price, in book form, in videos and
on the Internet. Most of them have just one problem. They don?t
work. Most of them are variations of five basic systems that
have been around for years. All of them will work in some instances
or for short periods of time. Over the long haul, they all have
some basic flaws.
This chapter presents these five basic systems and discusses
their flaws. As you study this game and the different strategies
and systems for playing it, you will recognize these five in
most of those ?foolproof? systems that someone is trying to
sell you.
The common thread running through these five systems is to bet
in such a fashion that you have more money bet when you hit
a winner than when you hit a loser. These are ?sliding scale?
systems. You keep betting more when you are in a series of successive
losses. Then, when you hit a winner, the win is more than the
sum of your losses, giving you a profit. As soon as you win,
you begin a series of betting less on each win, with the idea
that you will lose less when you take the next loss.
The Martingale: This
is a famous system and is often used as the basis for many
systems or strategies offered for sale through videos, etc.
It is so popular with so many players, especially beginning
players. This type of betting strategy is used on outside
bets where the odds are 50:50. Essentially, this strategy
is to double your bet after each losing bet so that your next
bet will ?make up? for all of your losses to that point. For
example, if your first bet is $1 and you lose, your next bet
is $2. If you win on that spin, you receive $4, recovering
your $3 and giving you a $1 profit. The Martingale system
works. You will win using this strategy. It just has a couple
of very serious problems.
The Martingale Bet Risk/Return
Bet # Bet $ Odds Losing % Total $ At Risk Profit If Win $
1 1 47.37% -1 $1
2 2 23.68 -3 $1
3 4 11.84 -7 $1
4 8 5.92 -15 $1
5 16 2.96 -31 $1
6 32 1.48 -63 $1
7 64 .74 -127 $1
8 128 .37 -255 $1
9 256 .185 -511 $1
10 512 .0925 -1,023 $1
First,
if there are table limits, you can very quickly run up against
the table limit. For example, if the table limit is $2,500,
you will be close to that limit on the 12th consecutive losing
spin and be unable to bet the next time. The odds of you losing
12 consecutive times are not great, but they exist and this
will occasionally happen. When it does, you lose ? big. It
will take a lot of successive wins to make up for this one
loss.
Second, you will very quickly run up into some very big numbers.
For example, after the 10th consecutive losing spin, you will
be betting $1,024 for the 11th bet. The worst part is, you
are betting that amount to win just $1. See the table below:
A variation of the Martingale strategy is to limit your string.
For example, you might decide to limit your risk to a series
of five losing bets. Your odds of losing that bet are down
to 2.96 percent, or said the other way; you have a 97% shot
at winning. If you lose again on the fifth spin, take your
loss and start over with a $1 bet and work through the sequence
again. But the bad news with this is that unless you have
a superior bet selection method that is actually managing
to put the odds in your favor, even a limited Martingale will
result in your losing at the basic rate of the house edge
for that particular game over the long term.
Labouchere: The Labouchere betting strategy is sometimes referred
to as the "cross-out method". Again, this is for
even money bets. It works like this. Begin with a small string
of numbers such as 1-2-3. Your bet is the total of the first
and last numbers in the series, in this case the sum of 1
and 3 which is $4. If you win that bet, you cross off the
1 and 3 and your next bet is $2 because it is the only number
left in the series. If you lose the first bet, you add that
total, 4, to the end of the series. Your number series is
now 1-2-3-4 and your next bet would be $5. When all the numbers
in the series have been crossed out, you will win the total
number of units in the original series which in this case
would have been $6 (1+2+3).
The advantage of this betting approach is that you only need
to win 1/3 of your bets to make a profit. The disadvantage
is that it doesn't take a very long losing streak before you
are making some pretty big bets.
To counter escalating bets, some advise breaking down a series
that contains numbers too large to bet comfortably into two
smaller series. For example, the series 4-6-4-8-12 could be
broken down into two series of 2-3-2-4-6. That may seem like
a good idea on the surface, but the problem is that you now
have to win twice as many bets as before in order to cross
out the whole series and win your 6 units. You must now win
not one out of three bets but two out of three bets until
the two series are completed. In other words, now, in order
to be successful, you have to play at a much higher win percentage
than would normally be expected in order to cancel out both
series. Otherwise, the series just grows longer and longer
and you have to keep breaking it down again and again until
eventually it will get to the point that you would have to
win at a very high rate for a very long period of time in
order to cancel it out.
Since this method is normally only used for even money bets
which you have slightly less than a 50% chance of winning
to begin with (because of the zeros on the wheel), you are
really in trouble if you break down a series and don't immediately
begin to win at a 67% clip. You are destined to fall further
and further behind and eventually go bankrupt because of the
ever-increasing need for a much higher win percentage than
would normally be expected.
D'Alembert. The D'Alembert betting method is simple yet perhaps
the most effective of all the approaches described thus far.
You simply increase your bets by one chip after every loss
and decrease by one chip after every win. So if you begin
with a one chip bet and lose, you then bet two chips. If you
lose again you will bet three chips. If you win on this spin
you will decrease your bet to two chips.
Bets will return to one chip as soon as there is a profit
on the series of bets. This method is effective because you
always have more money bet when you win than when you lose.
And, with a little luck you may even experience several winning
sessions.
Sooner or later you will have an extended losing streak and
this system will also fail.
Fibonacci. The Fibonacci betting progression is a mathematical
pattern that is commonly found in nature. In this progression,
the bet called for is always the sum of the two previous bets.
For instance in the series 1-2-3, the three is the sum of
1 and 2. The next bet called for would be five because it
is the sum of two and three. Then would come 8, 13, 21 and
so on, up the line.
A Fibonacci progression generally increases to the next bet
in the series after a loss but is often decreased by two levels
after a win. For instance in this series, 1-2-3-5-8-13, had
the 13-unit bet been won, the following bet would be decreased
2 levels and a five-unit bet would be made. However, some
prefer to play more aggressively and only reduce one level
after a win. As long as luck holds out, this of course will
produce larger wins.
But like all the previous betting approaches described, the
Fibonacci, of and by itself, will not produce long-term wins.
This system, too, soon has you placing some very large bets.
Law Of Thirds. Many roulette systems are based upon a theory
called the "Law of Thirds". The Law of Thirds is
a mathematical principle that expresses a tendency of random
numbers. The principle is basically this: Over the course
of any 36 spins, only 24 of the 36 numbers will be hit. Some
of the numbers will be hit more than once. This means that
of the 36 numbers, approximately 12 will be multiple hits
and twelve of the numbers will not be hit.
These systems use one means or another to identify and bet
on these numbers that will be hit multiple times. The problem
with the Law of Thirds is that it is not really a mathematical
law. It does not work out that way each and every time. There
is no real way to predict which numbers will and will not
be hit. Remember, one of the eight truisms is that each spin
is a separate event and has no relationship to any other spin.
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